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Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Factors to Note

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Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Feb 22 after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $1,690 million, indicating an increase of 7.2% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this grocery retailer is also expected to have increased year over year. Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 45 cents, suggesting an increase of 7.1% from the year-ago quarter. The company had guided adjusted earnings in the band of 42-46 cents a share for the quarter.

Sprouts Farmers has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.2%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Phoenix, AZ-based company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 4.8%.

Factors to Consider

Sprouts Farmers' focus on product innovation, technology and targeted marketing with everyday great pricing bodes well. It has been steadily expanding its presence in the natural organic space, given the huge demand in the segment. Management has been lowering operational complexity, optimizing production, improving the in-stock position and updating to smaller-format stores. Apart from these, the company has been trying to expand private-label offerings.

Cumulatively, the aforementioned factors are likely to have favorably impacted the top line. We expect comparable store sales growth of 3% for the quarter under review.

Sprouts Farmers has worked diligently to provide customers with a seamless shopping experience through its website, mobile app and a supply chain that prioritizes freshness. The introduction of grocery pickup services and home delivery options at all its stores represents a significant step toward meeting the growing demand for online shopping. Such initiatives have been helping Sprouts Farmers expand its customer base and revenues.

However, the company faces challenges in the SG&A domain. We anticipate SG&A expenses to increase 9.1% year over year in the final quarter. As a percentage of net sales, we expect the metric to deleverage 60 basis points to 30.6%. Consequently, we foresee a 20-basis point contraction in the operating margin.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Sprouts Farmers this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Sprouts Farmers has an Earnings ESP of +4.52% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $3.60, up 9.1% year over year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Costco’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $59.2 billion, which indicates an increase of 7.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.6%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.16 suggests an increase of 38.1% from the year-ago reported number.

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $649.1 million, which suggests an increase of 18.1% from the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7%, on average.

Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.17% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register a bottom-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.25 suggests a rise of 9.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Burlington Stores’ top line is anticipated to increase year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.02 billion, indicating an increase of 9.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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